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Monday, June 24, 2013

[2013 Wimbledon] The Men's Singles Draw Analysis and Prediction - The Open Championship

A proper way, for Roger Federer, to celebrate his 10th anniversary of his first triumph at the All England Club in 2003 would be to win The Open Championship in coming fortnight, wouldn't it? Well, that being said, Federer first needs to overcome a dreadful daunting draw, to celebrate his 10th anniversary in a proper way, while the world number 1 Novak Djokovic will enjoy a greatly favorable draw. Here goes my 2013 Wimbledon draw analysis:

The summarized draw looks like this:

1. Novak Djokovic's quarter
(Photo taken at 2009 Cincinnati Masters)
The world #1 should have felt he was pretty lucky to be the other side of all the other three biggest championship contenders, i.e. Andy Murray, Roger Federer, and Rafael Nadal. Djokovic will not see any remarkable challenge, until he would probably meet 13th seeded Tommy Haas, in the 4th round. Haas is an excellent grass court player as he proved it by defeating Federer in last year's Halle final. But, even though Haas has been rejuvenated, I'm not how he will cope with Djokovic's precision and strong will power.
After Haas, Djokovic will probably meet the 7th seed Tomas Berdych in the quarterfinal. Berdych managed to win only twice against Djkokovic, of their 15 meetings, even though Berdych won the latest match in Rome Masters recently. As there's almost certain that these two highest seeds of the quarter will meet each other in the quarterfinal, it would be interesting to see how the potential match turns out.

2. David Ferrer's quarter
(Photo taken at 2009 Cincinnati Masters)
Ferrer is extremely lucky to have such a favorable Grand slam draw two times in a row. Ferrer has never been extraordinary on grass. He had never gone beyond quarterfinal. But, it seems he has a pretty good chance for him to reach the semi-final on the virtue of the world #8 Juan Martin Del Potro. Del Potro hasn't played a match since he lost in the third round of Rome Masters in May. We will find out how Del Potro is recovered from his injuries, when he opens his campaign against Albert Ramos of Spain.

3. Roger Federer's quarter
(Photo taken at 2009 Cincinnati Masters)
When the draw was announced, I saw my fears became a reality: Federer and Nadal will be placed in the same quarter. Federer has the so-called toughest draw of the Big 4, but only from the quarter-final. Well, I learned again that a later stage of the draw might not be that important. I thought Federer had a great draw at Roland Garros, to reach the final. But, he didn't even have a chance to get to the semi-final. Until he reaches quarter-final, Federer will not encounter with any challenge. His nearest seeded player before quarterfinal will be Nicolas Almagro who is not a big force on grass. 

(Photo taken at 2009 Cincinnati Masters)
Rafael Nadal will need to defeat much tougher players, e.g. Paire and Wawrinka, before his eventual meeting with Federer. If Federer can erase Nadal's bid, he will be able to lift the Open championship trophy for the record eighth time.

4. Andy Murray's quarter
(Photo taken at 2009 Cincinnati Masters)
It's unlucky for Murray to draw both Nadal and Federer in his half. But, he is lucky in a way since he only needs to face one of them, if they advance to the semil-final stage. Until then, Murray will have a relatively easy first week. Any of the seeded players in Murray's section of the quarter will be able to bother Murray to reach the quarterfinal where he will face either #6 seed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or unseeded Ernest Gulbis. #10 seed Marin Cilic is also a force. Cilic pushed Murray to the third set at Queens' final last week.

I'll be surprised if I don't see any of Big 4 in the quarterfinal at this kind of big stage. But, my prediction goes wild from there.

Colleen's prediction
Berdych over Djokovic in 5
Del Potro over Kohlschreiber in 4
Federer over Nadal in 5
Murray over Gulbis in 4

Berdych over Del Potro in 5
Federer over Murray in 5

Federer over Berdych in 4

My picks are quite unconventional, aren't they? I know. But, I really hope my predictions come true. :)

Happy Wimbledon Fortnight!

2013 Wimbledon


  1. Well.. Nadal's early exit from Wimbledon is and isn't shocking at the same time.. Not this early though.

    1. OMG. I went back home for lunch and could watch the Roger's match... It actually happened..?

    2. Hi Carolina,
      my heart sank... and still feels numb.
      Two shocking exits in two days in a row...