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Monday, August 26, 2013

[2013 US Open] Draw Analysis and Picks

This year's US Open draw is at large. At least one quarter has more than its quota of favorites, i.e. No.2 Nadal and No.7 Federer. And, at least one quarter, i.e. No.4 David Ferrer's quarter, is a totally open field.
Actually, seeing Nadal and Federer in the same quarter makes me sick ;( This is too much for me to stand. I don't want to see either Federer or Nadal losing before quarter-final. But, look what happened. These two great players are drawn to the same quarter and destined to meet too early, if they both win first 4 matches each, before facing each other in the 5th match of the tournament.

The goddess of the draw were not so nice to Djokovic or Murray either. Djokovic could have had Ferrer in his half, instead of Murray who defeated him in the last year's final. Murray's bigger concern at this point would be Tomas Berdych, the second highest seed in his quarter. Berdych beat Murray just last week in straight sets.

So, let's say that each of the four favorite players has their share of burden starting the last Slam of the year.
Each quarter of the draw looks like this:

If you want to see the full draw, you can see & download the draw here.

1. Novak Djokovic's quarter

Djoker will not face any real threat until he will (probably) play No.6 seed Juan Martin Del Potro, the 2009 US Open champion. Delpo's memory of the bitter loss of 7-5 4-6 7-6 6-7 6-3 to Djokovic should still be fresh. Delpo will play aggressive and Djoker would better be ready for Delpo's revenge. Still World No. 1 will prevail at the end, as he usually does at bigger challenges.

2. Andy Murray's quarter
There aren't many contenders, especially in this best-of-5-sets match environment, in the defending champion's quarter, until he would eventually meet No. 5 seed Tomas Berdych. But, one funny thing about Berdych is that he either plays great or falls at a very early stage in Grand slam events. If Berdych survives the early tests from the players like No. 31 seed Julien Benneteau or No. 9 seed Stanislas Wawrinka, he has a great potential to defeat Murray once again and reaches the semi-final at the Flushing Meadows.

3. David Ferrer's quarter
As I wrote in the beginning, this is an open field and land of opportunity. As everybody knows, Ferrer's choice of surface is not a hard court. He will still be a fighter and decent contender, but there exists so many threats in his quarter. Ferrer needs to overcome the third-round clash with No.30 seed Ernest Gulbis who can beat just about anybody on a good serve day. If No. 4 seeds survives the third round, he will probably face No. 14 seed Jerzy Janowicz, semi-finalist at this year's Wimbledon. Ferrer's challenge doesn't stop at 4th round, since it's likely to meet another young gun, Milos Raonic of Canada.

4. Rafael Nadal's (and Roger Federer's) quarter
I had never imagined that I would see Federer seeded No. 7 since I became his loyal fan in 2003. But, nothing seems impossible now. :( 
There is no doubt that Rafa is a heavy favorite after two consecutive triumphs in the past two hard court masters event. But, a Grand Slam is a totally different event and he has his own quota of worries. He will meet red-hot Canadian youngster Vasek Pospisil who stormed into Top 40 very recently, before facing John Isner who surely will be crowd favorite. Then Rafa would meet his long-time rival Roger Federer. 
Having had a somewhat wretched summer, I really hope Federer is well rested and ready to regain his power at the Grand Slams. I have wanted to see him powered by once-upon-a-time mojo and win 7 matches in a row in these coming fortnight. Before he has any chance to play against Nadal for the 32nd time in their career, he has to defeat players like Sam Querrey, or Kei Nishikori who beat Federer in Madrid Masters this year.

Here goes Colleen's picks for the 2013 US Open Men's Singles

Djokovic over Del Potro in 5
Berdych over Murray in 4
Gulbis over Raonic in 5
Federer over Isner in 4

Djokovic over Berdych in 5
Federer over Gulbis in 3

Djokovic over Federer in 4

2013 US Open


  1. The match between Federer and Nadal will be hell of a game... I don't know if I'm bold enough to watch it..

    1. Yes, it will be, only if they meet in the quarterfinal. However, I hope Fed plays somebody else, preferably Isner, in the QF. Let's see. (Don't get me wrong. I like Nadal, but not as much as Federer)

    2. Arrrrrrgh so sorry Colleen..
      When you said "only if they meet in the quarterfinal", I was pretty sure (hell yeah!:p) that they were gonna meet.. When I watched the match between Federer and Mannarino, I thought Roger was in pretty good shape!

    3. Thanks Carolina. Still this is beyond the worst nightmare!!:'(